Can data on discharge times help us to improve hospital flow?

This blog describes the headline findings from the first phase of the national evaluation of the Core20PLUS5 approach

Our Head of Simulation, Dr Lucy Morgan, recently appeared on the new podcast Inside the Algorithm, hosted by Cambridge Spark, to discuss two areas of work at the Strategy Unit: a kidney replacement therapy model and the modelling the national waiting list.

In 1962, President John F. Kennedy arrived at NASA headquarters for a progress update on the planned trip to the moon. He was treated to a tour of the facilities. And, midway through the tour, he met a man carrying a broom.

Kennedy asked the man what he did at NASA. Rather than saying, “I'm the caretaker”, the man replied:

“I’m helping to put a man on the moon.”

Traditional NHS commissioning alone is not enough, and must be complemented by a “conductor” role that actively coordinates partners and drives system-wide change. Together, commissioners provide strategic direction while conductors enable delivery, which is essential for improving outcomes in complex health systems.

Some descriptions of healthcare seem to be taken straight from the film Minority Report. The 10 Year Plan for Health, for example, suggests that a combination of genomics, new diagnostics and predictive analytics with AI:

Larger GP practices may deliver more appointments, but are they the most efficient way to provide good care?

In this long read, Fraser Battye describes our analysis of what has driven the growth in hospital activity. The answer is perhaps surprising.

Press coverage of busy hospitals often comes in the language of natural disasters. ‘Rising tides’ or ‘waves’ of need ‘flood’ wards and corridors across the country.

Explanations for such disasters focus largely on the health of the population. Older, sicker, weaker and less resilient: with the NHS struggling to keep its head above the resulting water.

A practical exploration of intersectionality, testing theory through quantitative analysis of hospital readmissions.

The diagram below shows me at my most cynical. It is from a (light-hearted…) session that I ran many, many moons ago, where I was trying to describe the environment for evaluation that can be created by high-profile NHS programmes.